Mumbai on Alert? NASA Updates Risk of Asteroid Collision in 2032

Mumbai, 20th February 2025: NASA has revised its risk assessment for asteroid 2024 YR4, a newly discovered celestial body that has drawn global attention. The asteroid, measuring between 130 and 300 feet in diameter, now has a 1.5% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, down from an earlier estimate of 3.1%.

First detected on December 27, 2024, by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile, 2024 YR4 has been under close observation due to its potential threat. Initial calculations placed the impact probability at 1.3%, but subsequent observations led to fluctuations, peaking at 3.1% before stabilizing at the current 1.5%.

Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, emphasized the rarity of such a high probability. “A 2% impact chance is considered significant in our field,” he told ABC News, highlighting the unusual nature of this risk level for an asteroid of this size.

Potential Impact Zone
The projected impact zone, or “risk corridor,” spans a vast region, including the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. Major cities such as Mumbai, Dhaka, and Bogotá fall within this corridor, raising concerns about possible consequences.

Ongoing Observations and Planetary Defense
NASA and other space agencies are ramping up tracking efforts. Large ground-based observatories, including the Gemini telescopes in Hawaii and Chile, are gathering precise trajectory data. Even the James Webb Space Telescope has been enlisted to refine calculations.

NASA has cautioned that the impact probability may change with further observations. “Our understanding of the asteroid’s path improves with every new data point,” the agency stated in a recent social media post.

If 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, scientists estimate it could release energy equivalent to eight million tonnes of TNT—about 500 times the force of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Despite this, NASA remains cautiously optimistic, with experts predicting that continued monitoring will likely rule out an impact.

The situation has reignited discussions on planetary defense strategies and the need for continued vigilance in tracking near-Earth objects. As researchers work to refine calculations, asteroid 2024 YR4 serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of space threats and the importance of ongoing surveillance to safeguard our planet.